کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
6964411 | 1452305 | 2013 | 23 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A spatial agent-based model for assessing strategies of adaptation to climate and tourism demand changes in an alpine tourism destination
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
یک مدل مبتنی بر عامل فضایی برای ارزیابی استراتژی های سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی و گردشگری در یک مقصد گردشگری آلپی
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کلمات کلیدی
گردشگری آلپ، مدل مبتنی بر عامل فضایی، تغییر آب و هوا، استراتژی های سازگاری، شبیه سازی اجتماعی،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی کامپیوتر
نرم افزار
چکیده انگلیسی
A vast body of literature suggests that the European Alpine Region is amongst the most sensitive socio-ecosystems to climate change impacts. Our model represents the winter tourism socio-ecosystem of Auronzo di Cadore, located in the Dolomites (Italy), which economic and environmental conditions are highly vulnerable to climate variations. This agent-based model includes eight types of agents corresponding to different winter tourist profiles based on their socio-economic background and activity targets. The model is calibrated with empirical data while results are authenticated through direct interaction of local stakeholders with the model. The model is then used for assessing three hypothetical and contrasted infrastructure-oriented adaptation strategies for the winter tourism industry, that have been previously discussed with local stakeholders, as possible alternatives to the “business-as-usual” situation. These strategies are tested against multiple future scenarios that include: (a) future weather conditions in terms of snow cover and temperature, (b) the future composition and total number of tourists and (c) the type of market competition. A set of socio-economic indicators, which are strongly coupled with relevant environmental consequences, are considered in order to draw conclusions on the robustness of the selected strategies.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software - Volume 45, July 2013, Pages 29-51
Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software - Volume 45, July 2013, Pages 29-51
نویسندگان
Stefano Balbi, Carlo Giupponi, Pascal Perez, Marco Alberti,