Lead time estimation for modular production plants

Modular plant design is an approach for making chemical production more flexible and more efficient. Different approaches for modular plant design have been developed, for example in the CoPIRIDE or F3 factory project. They have in common, that lead time reductions for modular equipment are expected e.g. by utilizing design repetition or parallelization of preassembly of modules. To support the decision for or against a modular concept, besides cost effects possible lead time changes compared to conventional concepts should be anticipated in early economic evaluations already. In this article, a lead time estimation method will be presented that correlates project costs and project durations and can be applied to modular and non-modular plants enabling comparative studies. An example from a previous paper was used to investigate the impact of modularization on lead time. It includes modular production lines and a non-modular backbone facility that provides energy and utility supply. A range of investment sizes (FCI of 3-95 mio. €) was investigated and compared with a conventional reference plant. Total lead time reduction was in the range from 2.6 to 5.5 month depending on investment size. For a more significant impact on the lead time the modularization approach needs to be modified by also applying modular design to the backbone facility. In this case depending on investment size total lead time reduction would be between 3.9 and 18.7 months representing a very significant reduction of 23%-60% compared to the lead time of the conventionally designed reference plant. This is considered as the maximum expectable lead time reduction that can be achieved through modular plant design. This reduction would represent a major potential for speeding up construction of chemical plants.