کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
7006453 1455157 2016 33 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Application of loss functions in process economic risk assessment
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
کاربرد توابع از دست رفته در ارزیابی ریسک اقتصادی
کلمات کلیدی
توابع از دست دادن توابع از دست رفته طبیعی معکوس، تابع از دست دادن بتا معکوس تابع از دست دادن باینری سلسله مراتبی، زنجیره مارکوف مونت کارلو،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی شیمی تصفیه و جداسازی
چکیده انگلیسی
Loss functions describe the economical consequences of the deviations from the target values. In recent years they have been used in wide range of application including process safety assessment. This paper provides a novel analysis to assess potential loss due to process deviation. The assessed losses help to better estimate process economic risk, which in turn assist in effective process system design and operational decision-making. The analysis is presented in four different development stages: (i) loss functions focusing on simple functions; (ii) loss functions with estimated maximum loss; (iii) loss functions focusing on probability distributions; and (iv) loss functions in which both distributions of variables and their dependencies are considered (i.e., hierarchical Bayesian based loss functions). Details discussion on development stages three and four are presented with case studies. First case study demonstrates application of inverted probability distribution and while second case study provides application of the hierarchical Bayesian loss functions. Advantage and disadvantages of different types of loss functions are also discussed. Finally, future research directions have been proposed.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Chemical Engineering Research and Design - Volume 111, July 2016, Pages 371-386
نویسندگان
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