Unified boundary and probabilistic power flow

• An efficient and reliable, unified approach for combined analysis of uncertainties in power flow has been proposed.
• The paper also proposes an efficient constant Jacobian approach for proper line outage simulation.
• It has been tested on transmission and distribution systems under different loadings with combinations of uncertainties.

Different types of uncertainties exist in system data. Outages, errors in load forecasts and renewable generations are generally represented as probabilistic uncertainties. Load model coefficients and network parameters, on the other hand, are best represented as interval uncertainties. Irrespective of the nature of these uncertainties, all of them need to be considered in an integrated manner for proper system analysis. This paper tries to fulfill this precise need. By utilizing the synergy of boundary and probabilistic power flow algorithms, development of efficient line outage simulation and use of constant Jacobian approach, the computational burden has been kept to a manageable level. The proposed approach can be used for both transmission and distribution systems. Results for two transmission and one distribution systems have been obtained with various types of uncertainties. Validation of results has been done through the Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS).