Determinantes de la inversión en exploración de hidrocarburos: un análisis del caso argentino

This article examines the cyclic behavior of investing in upstream oil and natural gas exploration in Argentina and some of the main economic variables in agreement with Kydland and Prescott's methodology (1990). The objective is to clarify the determinants involved in deciding to make said investment in a developing country. Some of the main qualitative results are related to the fact that the economic variables may not be explained individually, to the relevance of uncertainty and its impact on the agents' rationality when making decisions especially in developing countries as is the case that is analyzed. These aspects must particularly be taken into consideration when analyzing the sustainability of the energy system and the energy policy's design, mainly given the role of energy supply in socio-economic development.