Rerun the tape of history and QWERTY always wins

We use basic probability theory and simple replicable electronic search experiments to evaluate the origins and evolution of the QWERTY standard. We find that QWERTY developed a degree of format/device compatibility that was near-optimal in terms of certain design imperatives that would have been difficult to have bettered with the techniques available to the designer in his day. In turn, since the development of Dvorak mimicked crucial features of QWERTY, it was contingent on QWERTY winning the standards battle, but by then lock-in had occurred. Dvorak has been argued to have superior format/user compatibility compared to QWERTY but it would have been inferior in terms of format/device compatibility. Since format/device compatibility was the grounds on which the standards battle was fought, it would still have lost to QWERTY if it had been introduced earlier, even if contemporaneously with QWERTY's introduction. We conclude that if the tape of history could be rerun, QWERTY would still win against Dvorak every time. Implications for the literature on path dependence are discussed.