Forest protection and tenure status: The key role of indigenous peoples and protected areas in Panama

Using recent land cover maps, we used matching techniques to analyze forest cover and assess effectiveness in avoiding deforestation in three main land tenure regimes in Panama, namely protected areas, indigenous territories and non-protected areas. We found that the tenure status of protected areas and indigenous territories (including comarcas and claimed lands) explains a higher rate of success in avoided deforestation than other land tenure categories, when controlling for covariate variables such us distance to roads, distance to towns, slope, and elevation. In 2008 protected areas and indigenous territories had the highest percentage of forest cover and together they hosted 77% of Panama's total mature forest area. Our study shows the promises of matching techniques as a potential tool for demonstrating and quantifying conservation efforts. We therefore propose that matching could be integrated to methodological approaches allowing compensating forests' protectors. Because conserving forest carbon stocks in forested areas of developing countries is an essential component of REDD+ and its future success, the discussion of our results is relevant to countries or jurisdictions with high forest cover and low deforestation rates.