Carbon emissions growth and road freight: Analysis of the influencing factors in Tunisia

Based on data on total CO2 emissions and freight transport, we determine and analyze the effects of main driving factors of total CO2 emissions in Tunisia during the period 1990-2006. We have decomposed the annual emission changes into components representing changes in average emission of fossil fuels, fossil fuel share from road freight transport, fossil fuel intensity from road freight transport, road freight transport intensity and gross domestic production. The decomposing analysis results have shown that economic growth is the principal factor driving the CO2 emission growth. Changes in average emission of fossil fuels is the primarily factor driving the CO2 emission changes. For road freight transport-related components, effects of fossil fuel share, fossil fuel intensity, and road freight transport intensity are all found secondary responsible for CO2 emissions changes. They have a main role especially in driving CO2 emissions increase. This study also shows that, given the drastically decline of economic growth since the popular revolution in 2010, the reduction of CO2 emissions become more difficult by the absolute decoupling of road freight transport from economic growth. The relative decoupling by switching to less emission intensive transportation modes, may the adequate solution. To this end, sustainable freight transport policy in Tunisia could apply some fiscal, economic and technical instruments to reduce fossil fuels consumption and CO2 emissions related to the road mode.