Analysis and future outlook of natural gas consumption in the Italian residential sector

• The consumption of natural gas in the Italian residential sector is analyzed.
• A linear forecasting model of the future consumption is utilized.
• The impact of GDP, price and degree days on the final consumption is shown.
• The effect of a selected range of energy efficiency measures is taken into account.
• The paper shows a huge energy saving potential of the Italian residential sector.

The aim of the present paper is to evaluate the future consumption of natural gas in the Italian residential sector. The historical pattern of the consumption is reported and analyzed in order to identify the consumption drivers. It is found that natural gas consumption is influenced by gross domestic product per capita (GDP per capita), gas price and heating degree days (HDD); therefore an equation linking these parameters is estimated by means of a linear regression analysis. The GDP per capita, gas price and HDD short and long run elasticities of consumption have been estimated, showing that the larger influence is due to HDD (i.e. climatic factor). On the basis of the evolution of the explaining variables, a “business as usual” (BAU) trend of consumption is estimated, showing that, in 2030, natural gas consumption in the residential sector is expected to double that of 1990. Finally, the effect of energy saving measures in the sector of buildings heating is evaluated, showing that consumption might be reduced of ∼20% with respect to BAU consumption, if the 15% of flats and 5% of single houses are properly insulated.