An appraisal of wind speed distribution prediction by soft computing methodologies: A comparative study

• Probabilistic distribution functions of wind speed.
• Two parameter Weibull probability distribution.
• To build an effective prediction model of distribution of wind speed.
• Support vector regression application as probability function for wind speed.

The probabilistic distribution of wind speed is among the more significant wind characteristics in examining wind energy potential and the performance of wind energy conversion systems. When the wind speed probability distribution is known, the wind energy distribution can be easily obtained. Therefore, the probability distribution of wind speed is a very important piece of information required in assessing wind energy potential. For this reason, a large number of studies have been established concerning the use of a variety of probability density functions to describe wind speed frequency distributions. Although the two-parameter Weibull distribution comprises a widely used and accepted method, solving the function is very challenging. In this study, the polynomial and radial basis functions (RBF) are applied as the kernel function of support vector regression (SVR) to estimate two parameters of the Weibull distribution function according to previously established analytical methods. Rather than minimizing the observed training error, SVR_poly and SVR_rbf attempt to minimize the generalization error bound, so as to achieve generalized performance. According to the experimental results, enhanced predictive accuracy and capability of generalization can be achieved using the SVR approach compared to other soft computing methodologies.