کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
764130 1462884 2014 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Novel effects of demand side management data on accuracy of electrical energy consumption modeling and long-term forecasting
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
اثرات ریشه ای از داده های مدیریت تقاضا برای صحت مدل سازی مصرف انرژی الکتریکی و پیش بینی طولانی مدت
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی


• Novel effects of DSM data on electricity consumption forecasting is examined.
• Optimal ANN models based on IPSO and SFL algorithms are developed.
• Addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36%.

Worldwide implementation of demand side management (DSM) programs has had positive impacts on electrical energy consumption (EEC) and the examination of their effects on long-term forecasting is warranted. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of historical DSM data on accuracy of EEC modeling and long-term forecasting. To achieve the objective, optimal artificial neural network (ANN) models based on improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) and shuffled frog-leaping (SFL) algorithms are developed for EEC forecasting. For long-term EEC modeling and forecasting for the U.S. for 2010–2030, two historical data types used in conjunction with developed models include (i) EEC and (ii) socio-economic indicators, namely, gross domestic product, energy imports, energy exports, and population for 1967–2009 period. Simulation results from IPSO-ANN and SFL-ANN models show that using socio-economic indicators as input data achieves lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for long-term EEC forecasting, as compared with EEC data. Based on IPSO-ANN, it is found that, for the U.S. EEC long-term forecasting, the addition of DSM data to socio-economic indicators data reduces MAPE by 36% and results in the estimated difference of 3592.8 MBOE (5849.9 TW h) in EEC for 2010–2030.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy Conversion and Management - Volume 78, February 2014, Pages 745–752
نویسندگان
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