A novel hybrid approach based on Particle Swarm Optimization and Ant Colony Algorithm to forecast energy demand of Turkey

This paper proposes a new hybrid method (HAP) for estimating energy demand of Turkey using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Ant Colony Optimization (ACO). Proposed energy demand model (HAPE) is the first model which integrates two mentioned meta-heuristic techniques. While, PSO, developed for solving continuous optimization problems, is a population based stochastic technique; ACO, simulating behaviors between nest and food source of real ants, is generally used for discrete optimizations. Hybrid method based PSO and ACO is developed to estimate energy demand using gross domestic product (GDP), population, import and export. HAPE is developed in two forms which are linear (HAPEL) and quadratic (HAPEQ). The future energy demand is estimated under different scenarios. In order to show the accuracy of the algorithm, a comparison is made with ACO and PSO which are developed for the same problem. According to obtained results, relative estimation errors of the HAPE model are the lowest of them and quadratic form (HAPEQ) provides better-fit solutions due to fluctuations of the socio-economic indicators.

► PSO and ACO algorithms are hybridized for forecasting energy demands of Turkey.
► Linear and quadratic forms are developed to meet the fluctuations of indicators.
► GDP, population, export and import have significant impacts on energy demand.
► Quadratic form provides better fit solution than linear form.
► Proposed approach gives lower estimation error than ACO and PSO, separately.