کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
7963593 | 1514147 | 2018 | 11 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Experimental and statistical study on fracture boundary of non-irradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube under LOCA conditions
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی هسته ای و مهندسی
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چکیده انگلیسی
For estimating fracture probability of fuel cladding tube under loss-of-coolant accident conditions of light-water-reactors, laboratory-scale integral thermal shock tests were conducted on non-irradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube specimens. Then, the obtained binary data with respect to fracture or non-fracture of the cladding tube specimen were analyzed statistically. A method to obtain the fracture probability curve as a function of equivalent cladding reacted (ECR) was proposed using Bayesian inference for generalized linear models: probit, logit, and log-probit models. Then, model selection was performed in terms of physical characteristics and information criteria, a widely applicable information criterion and a widely applicable Bayesian information criterion. As a result, it was clarified that the log-probit model was the best among the three models to estimate the fracture probability in terms of the degree of prediction accuracy for both next data to be obtained and the true model. Using the log-probit model, it was shown that 20% ECR corresponded to a 5% probability level with a 95% confidence of fracture of the cladding tube specimens.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Nuclear Materials - Volume 499, February 2018, Pages 528-538
Journal: Journal of Nuclear Materials - Volume 499, February 2018, Pages 528-538
نویسندگان
Takafumi Narukawa, Akira Yamaguchi, Sunghyon Jang, Masaki Amaya,