A probabilistic model for a gas explosion due to leakages in the grey cast iron gas mains

In this paper we propose a model for the probability of an explosion caused by a leakage form grey cast iron pipes in the city of Amsterdam as a function of pipeline and environmental characteristics. The parameters in the model are quantified, with uncertainty, using historical data and structured expert judgment, by use of the Classical Model. Eleven experts from Dutch distribution system operators (DSO) and Kiwa Gas Technology participated in the research. The model has to provide the overall probability of an explosion per year and a prioritization of pipes in terms of their potential contribution to the probability of explosion, which can help DSO's to prioritize their replacements.