Impact of electric vehicles and synthetic gaseous fuels on final energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in Germany based on long-term vehicle fleet modelling

Based on a prospective scenario analysis, possible vehicle fleet developments for the individual motor car traffic (vehicle categories N1 and M1) are investigated for Germany in order to determine the long-term vehicle fleet structure, final energy demand, and related carbon dioxide emissions until the year 2050. In this framework, a vehicle fleet model was developed which combines a bottom-up consumer demand model with a dynamic stock-flow approach. Special emphasis is thereby given to different electric power-trains and synthetic gaseous fuels based on the power-to-gas technology. In detail, two different main scenarios are developed and, in addition, the impact of different carbon dioxide taxation levels of fossil fuels on the vehicle fleet structure are analysed. The scenario results reveal a broad range of possible future vehicle fleet structures. In the short to medium timeframe, the internal combustion engine dominates the fleet as a result of efficiency improvements and an increased use of natural gas as automotive fuel. The development of electric power-trains is initially marked by hybrid vehicles, whereas battery electric vehicles dominate the fleet structure in the long-term. Under favourable conditions, also synthetic gaseous fuels are competitive which can reduce carbon dioxide emissions even further.