کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
8072845 | 1521434 | 2016 | 9 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Calculation of solar irradiation prediction intervals combining volatility and kernel density estimates
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
محاسبه فواصل پیش بینی تابش خورشیدی با ترکیب نوسانات و تخمین تراکم هسته
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کلمات کلیدی
پیش بینی، تابش خورشیدی، فواصل پیش بینی، نوسان، برآورد تراکم هسته،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
In order to integrate solar energy into the grid it is important to predict the solar radiation accurately, where forecast errors can lead to significant costs. Recently, the increasing statistical approaches that cope with this problem is yielding a prolific literature. In general terms, the main research discussion is centred on selecting the “best” forecasting technique in accuracy terms. However, the need of the users of such forecasts require, apart from point forecasts, information about the variability of such forecast to compute prediction intervals. In this work, we will analyze kernel density estimation approaches, volatility forecasting models and combination of both of them in order to improve the prediction intervals performance. The results show that an optimal combination in terms of prediction interval statistical tests can achieve the desired confidence level with a lower average interval width. Data from a facility located in Spain are used to illustrate our methodology.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy - Volume 114, 1 November 2016, Pages 266-274
Journal: Energy - Volume 114, 1 November 2016, Pages 266-274
نویسندگان
Juan R. Trapero,