کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
8073093 | 1521436 | 2016 | 14 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Probabilistic life-cycle cost analysis for renewable and non-renewable power plants
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تجزیه و تحلیل هزینه های احتمال چرخه عمر برای نیروگاه های تجدید پذیر و غیر قابل احیاء
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
Two probabilistic models are presented to assess the costs of power plants. One of them uses requirement trees, value functions and the analytic hierarchy process. It is also based on Monte Carlo simulation. The second one is a mathematical model for calculating the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) based on discounted cash flow techniques, and combined with Monte Carlo simulation. The results obtained with both models are compared and discussed. On the one hand, the LCOE model provides the most reliable results. These results reinforce the idea that conventional or coal, lignite, oil, natural gas and nuclear power plants are still the most competitive options, with the LCOE falling in a range of around 25 to 200 â¬/MWh and mean values approaching 70 â¬/MWh. Generally, renewable power plants obtained the worst results, with a LCOE varying from around 30 to more than 450 â¬/MWh. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that renewable alternatives can compete with their conventional counterparts under certain conditions.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy - Volume 112, 1 October 2016, Pages 774-787
Journal: Energy - Volume 112, 1 October 2016, Pages 774-787
نویسندگان
Juan José Cartelle Barros, Manuel Lara Coira, MarÃa Pilar de la Cruz López, Alfredo del Caño Gochi,