Integrated assessment of failure probability of the district heating network

• Analysis of the failure probability of the district heating (DH) network piping.
• Statistical analysis of failure data of district heating system.
• Dynamic thermalhydraulic analysis of blackout in pump station of DH system.
• Integrated deterministic–probabilistic structural integrity analysis of piping.
• Integrated assessment of piping failure probability by Bayesian method.

The aim of the research presented in this paper is the assessment of failure probability of the district heating network piping. The applied methodology for assessment of failure probability of the piping network energy systems includes three types of analyses: probabilistic mathematical, deterministic thermal-hydraulic and integrated deterministic–probabilistic structural integrity analyses. The analysis of Kaunas (Lithuania) district heating (DH) network was performed. First of all, the statistical analysis was performed and the piping with the highest failure rate was determined. The thermal-hydraulic analysis was performed and loads for deterministic–probabilistic structural analysis were calculated for the selected part of DH network. The integrated deterministic–probabilistic structural integrity analysis was performed in two steps—general structural integrity evaluation and probabilistic analysis of chosen piping part. Finally, the probabilistic mathematical method was applied for the integrated assessment of failure probability of the DH network piping. This method takes into consideration statistical information about Kaunas DH piping failure data, system structure, and pipe failure probability received by integrated deterministic–probabilistic structural integrity analysis.