Evaluation of caprock integrity during pore pressure change using a probabilistic implementation of a closed-form poroelastic model

► New closed-form solutions for stress changes induced by pressure were developed. ► These solutions integrated with Coulomb failure criterion for geomechanics analysis. ► The methodology was used with Monte Carlo scheme for hydraulic integrity assessment. ► It was used for probabilistic analysis of integrity for an acid gas injection project. ► Sensitivity analyses were performed to study the effects of different parameters.