Evaluation of future energy consumption on PM2.5 emissions and public health economic loss in Beijing

Energy consumption has promoted a continuous development for economy and society, but it has also brought serious environmental pollution problems which endanger public health. In order to focus on the impact of PM2.5 emissions from future energy consumption on human health better, this paper estimated PM2.5 emissions caused by energy consumption in Beijing in 2020,2025 and 2030 by setting the baseline scenario, emission reduction scenario, intensified emission reduction scenario and the data of the base year 2015, which will be 162.6 thousand tons, 195.9 thousand tons and 235.9 thousand tons in the baseline scenario, 143.1 thousand tons, 151.8 thousand tons and 160.9 thousand tons under the emission reduction scenario, and 132.6 thousand tons, 130.2 thousand tons, 127.9 thousand tons under the intensified emission reduction scenario. Finally the paper measured the number of different health effect ends caused by PM2.5 emissions and the economic loss. The results showed that there was a rapid increase, a mild increase and a moderate decrease in energy consumption and PM2.5 emissions in Beijing under the three scenarios from 2015 to 2030. Besides, under the same scenario and the same concentration level baseline, the number of the internal medicine (over the age of 15) was the largest, and the economic loss caused by total death rate was the biggest. This article provides suggestions to reduce PM2.5 emissions and public health effect ends for Beijing in the future.