Exploring potential pathways towards fossil energy-related GHG emission peak prior to 2030 for China: An integrated input-output simulation model

This study develops a dynamic integrated input-output simulation model to explore potential pathways towards GHG emission peak prior to 2030 for China. Dynamic energy consumption intensities and GHG emission intensities (GHGEIs) of sectors (household), as well as various levels of economic growth are set in 4 scenarios (each containing 4 sub-scenarios). The impacts of changes in the added value (reflected as industrial restructuring) and changes in GHGEIs (reflected as technological advancement and intensified policies) of 10 target sectors including both promoted and constrained ones on the peak are elaborated. In the Business-as-Usual scenario, no emission peak could appear before 2040 along the historical trends without taking further intensified emission reduction policies. In Scenario 1 and 2, when economic growth is maintained at higher levels, sole dependence on changes in either added value or GHGEIs of sectors could curb GHG emissions, however without contributing to a peak timing before 2030. The peak timing could be advanced to 2026 (10.85 × 109 t CO2-e), 2025 (10.77 × 109 t CO2-e), 2024 (10.69 × 109 t CO2-e) and 2023 (10.65 × 109 t CO2-e) corresponding to different levels of economic growth in Scenario 3, where industrial restructuring and intensified energy and GHG emission reduction policies are involved. The results are expected to provide references to future planning of energy utilization and GHG emission reduction from the perspective of both the country and sectors.