Economic viability analysis of a construction and demolition waste recycling plant in Portugal - part II: economic sensitivity analysis

Part I of this paper contained a technological description and economic evaluation of a large-scale high-end CDW recycling plant in the Lisbon Metropolitan area. It concludes that economic viability is likely under the operating conditions considered, but these may and will very probably change in the near future. The reasons for such assumption have to do with the inherent uncertainty related to CDW generation (which might vary, for instance, due to socio-economic conditions in the region), such as the variability of CDW input gate fees and tariffs associated with landfilling rejected materials, which are market dependent parameters. This made it necessary to perform an (simplified) economic viability sensitivity analysis, focused on the investment return period and global economic balance. If parameters such as the plant's capacity, the CDW input gate fee and landfill fee are varied, the investment return period is affected in different ways, though its value is generally kept below 8 years, for parameter variations of ±30%. The analysis indicates economic performance for variations in single parameters, except for the plant's capacity, which was considered to vary simultaneously with all others. Extreme best and worst scenarios were also tested in an attempt to define the model's boundaries.