کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
8115728 | 1522332 | 2016 | 19 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
China's natural gas production and consumption analysis based on the multicycle Hubbert model and rolling Grey model
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تجزیه و تحلیل تولید و مصرف گاز طبیعی چین بر اساس مدل چندبعدی هوببرت و مدل غلتکی خاکستری
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کلمات کلیدی
ARIMAURRHubbert modelMAPERGMBCMOLSTCMLS-SVMNRMSEANFISARDLANNsMtoeRMSERBFFISCBMLNGBritish Petroleum - بریتیش پترولیومleast squares support vector machine - حداقل مربعات از دستگاه بردار پشتیبانی می کندnormalized root mean square error - خطای میانگین ریشه نرمال شدهRoot mean square error - ریشه میانگین خطای مربعEnergy policy - سیاست انرژیFuzzy inference system - سیستم استنتاج فازیartificial neural networks - شبکه های عصبی مصنوعیCorrelation coefficient - ضریب همبستگیordinary least square - عادی حداقل مربعRadial basis function - عملکرد پایه شعاعیPhotovoltaic - فتوولتائیکCoal bed methane - متان زغال سنگAutoregressive Distributed Lag - مجادله توزیع خودکارGrey model - مدل خاکستریmean absolute percentage error - میانگین درصد خطای مطلقAutoregressive Integrated Moving Average - میانگین متحرک متحرک Autoregressivebillion cubic meters - میلیارد متر مکعبNatural gas - گاز طبیعی Liquefied natural gas - گاز طبیعی مایعGigawatt - گیگاوات
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی های تجدید پذیر، توسعه پایدار و محیط زیست
چکیده انگلیسی
As fossil fuels reserves deplete rapidly and the low-carbon economy develops expeditiously, especially in China, natural gas as a clean and alternative energy is underway to help meet increased energy needs and climate needs. Therefore, accurate forecasts of natural gas production and consumption have been a necessary task for policy making in the coming years. This paper presents a review of natural gas forecasting models. The multicycle Hubbert model is employed to forecast China's annual nature gas production and to determine the peak production, the peak year and the future production trends based on several different URR scenarios. Moreover, a small-sample effective rolling GM(1,1) model is proposed for the first time to forecast exponential natural gas consumption with different lengths of data sets. Then, the grey relationship analysis is used to select the best consumption curve in correspond with different URR scenarios. The empirical result shows that the supply-demand gap will be larger and larger in the future, with a minimum gap of 22Â bcm in 2011 and 225Â bcm in 2050, with a maximum gap of 31Â bcm in 2011 and 807Â bcm in 2050, which indicates that the natural gas production in China cannot meet the rising consumption. Therefore, policy measures must be taken to ameliorate the situation, including expanding natural gas imports, increasing unconventional natural gas production, complementing the gap with other energy resources and combining energy saving with emission reduction. Accurate forecasting of natural gas production and consumption can provide the basis for decision making and help the government generate new significant policies.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews - Volume 53, January 2016, Pages 1149-1167
Journal: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews - Volume 53, January 2016, Pages 1149-1167
نویسندگان
Jianzhou Wang, Haiyan Jiang, Qingping Zhou, Jie Wu, Shanshan Qin,