Ionospheric parameters as the precursors of disturbed geomagnetic conditions

Geomagnetic storms and substorms are the principal elements of the disturbed Space Weather conditions. The aim of the study was to reveal the ionospheric precursors that can be used to forecast geomagnetic disturbance beginning. To study the ionospheric processes before, during and after magnetic storms and substorms data from Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory was used (geomagnetic coordinates: 64.1oN, 119.2oE). In earlier works the Main Effect (ME) was revealed for substorms. It consists of the following steps: (a) the increase of critical frequency foF2 from its quiet median before and during the substorm growth phase, four-five hours before To moment that is the moment of the expansion phase onset, (b) the foF2 decrease to the level lower than its median just after To and until Te that is the moment of the end of the expansion phase, (c) the issue “a” repeated during the recovery phase (d) two bell-shape spikes in the cutoff frequency values foEs: first spike occurs three hours before To, second spike - during the expansion phase within the interval between To and Te. In the present work it is shown that ME manifestations can be used as precursors of magnetic substorms at high-latitudes (geomagnetic latitudes 50oN-65oN). In particular, the foF2 growth some hours before To can be used as a precursor of substorm development. The first foEs bell-shaped spike also can be used for short-term forecasting, two-three hours in advance of a substorm. Furthermore, the storms between 2008 and 2012 were studied. It was revealed that the similar ME also takes place in the case of magnetic storms but within the different time scale. More specifically, the first ME maximum in foF2 values occurs one-two days before the storm beginning and can be used as its precursor. In addition, the foEs spike takes place approximately ten hours before a storm and also can be used for the prediction of the storm beginning.