An effective biophysical indicator for opium yield estimation

Opium is a narcotic obtained from opium poppy and raw materials of heroin for illegal drug trade. Information on opium production is important for governments and international communities to understand the scale of illegal drug trade and to implement drug fighting policies. Opium production can be estimated from opium yield and poppy cultivation acreage. Poppy cultivation acreage in turn can be estimated using remote sensing technique. This study explores the feasibility of assessing opium yield using remote sensing technique. The objective of this study is to find an effective biophysical indicator that can be related to both opium yield estimation and remote sensing measurements. Data are obtained from three years ground experiments conducted in an official farm in North-Western China. Opium yield and main plant and environmental parameters of opium poppy are measured. A linear regression analysis measures the relationship between opium yield and main plant parameters. A strong correlation between opium yield and leaf area index (LAI) in flowering and harvesting periods of opium poppy is observed (R2 = 0.826 and 0.862 respectively). LAI is a good indicator during flowering and harvesting periods and can be used to build a model for opium yield estimation. Furthermore, LAI can be retrieved using remote sensing at a region scale. The study shows that remote sensing could be used to estimate opium yield in opium poppy concentrated regions, and that a more comprehensive and precise opium production information could be obtained for further analysis of illegal drug circulating trend and policy.

Research highlights▶ LAI is an effective biophysical indicator for opium yield estimation. ▶ LAI in flowering and harvesting stages has linear relationship with opium yield. ▶ Providing a potential way for estimating opium yield using remote sensing.