Estimating the incidence and 30-day all-cause mortality rate of Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England by 2020/21

Escherichia coli bacteraemia rates have been increasing in England. Using the national mandatory surveillance data for E. coli bacteraemia from 2012/13 to 2016/17, we aimed to estimate the incidence of E. coli bacteraemia and 30-day all-cause case fatality rate (CFR) by 2020/21 in the absence of new interventions to reduce infection rates. After controlling for age, sex, and hospital versus community-onset of infection, it is estimated that the incidence of E. coli bacteraemia will be 90.5 (95% PI: 89.8-91.3) per 100,000 population (N = 50,663), with an associated CFR of 11.5 (95% PI: 11.2-11.8) per 100,000 population (N = 6554), by 2020/21.