Estimation of population-level effect of the endocrine disruptor pyriproxyfen in Daphnia magna by using changes in sex ratio and reproductive output

Here we developed an analytical means of estimating population-level effects of endocrine disruptors on Daphnia magna. Our approach was based on the fact that the endocrine-disrupting juvenile hormone analogs induce the production of male neonates if they are exposed to the analogs during a particular period in their prenatal development; the method also assumed that the abnormal production of male neonates in the sake of production of female neonates reduces population growth. We constructed a linear toxicodynamics model to elucidate the period in which D. magna neonates are sensitive to exposure to the analog and also the probability of an individual neonate changing sex under specific exposure concentrations. The proposed model was applied to D. magna reproduction test data obtained under time-varying exposure to pyriproxyfen to derive the maximum-likelihood estimates and the posterior distributions of the model parameters. To quantitatively assess the ecological risk at the population level, we conducted a population dynamics simulation under two time-varying exposure scenarios (i.e., constant or pulsed exposure) by using an age-structured population model. When the change in sex ratio was based on the time-weighted average concentration during the period of sensitivity, change in sex ratio caused approximately equivalent population-level effects as did reproductive inhibition (i.e., reduction in the total number of neonates per female parent) regardless of the exposure scenario. In contrast, when change in sex ratio was based on maximum concentration during the sensitive period, change in sex ratio caused only half the population-level effects as did reproductive inhibition under constant exposure, whereas it caused a much larger population-level effect than did reproductive inhibition under pulsed exposure.