Quantifying vulnerability of Antarctic ice shelves to hydrofracture using microwave scattering properties

Recent ice shelf disintegrations on the Antarctic Peninsula and subsequent increases in ice sheet mass loss have highlighted the importance of tracking ice shelf stability with respect to surface melt ponding and hydrofracture. In this study, we use active microwave scatterometry in time-series to estimate melt season duration, and winter backscatter levels as a proxy for relative concentration of refrozen ice lenses in Antarctic ice shelf firn. We demonstrate a physical relationship between melt days and firn/ice backscatter using scatterometry and field data from Greenland, and apply the observed relationship to derive and map a vulnerability index for Antarctica's ice shelves. The index reveals that some remaining Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have already reached a firn state that is vulnerable to hydrofracture. We also show that the progression of an ice shelf towards vulnerability is affected by many factors, such as surface mass balance, internal stresses, and ice shelf geometry.