New insights on entrainment and condensation in volcanic plumes: Constraints from independent observations of explosive eruptions and implications for assessing their impacts

The turbulent entrainment of atmosphere and the condensation of water vapor govern the heights of explosive volcanic plumes. These processes thus determine the delivery and the lifetime of volcanic ash and aerosols into the atmosphere. Predictions of plume heights using one-dimensional “integral” models of volcanic plumes, however, suffer from very large uncertainties, related to parameterizations for entrainment and condensation. In particular, the wind entrainment coefficient β, which governs the contribution of crosswinds to turbulent entrainment, is subject to uncertainties of one order of magnitude, leading to relative uncertainties of the order of 50% on plume height. In this study, we use a database of 94 eruptive phases with independent estimates of mass eruption rate and plume height to constrain and evaluate four popular 1D models. We employ re-sampling methods to account for observational uncertainties. We show that plume height predictions are significantly improved when: i) the contribution of water vapor condensation to the plume buoyancy flux is excluded; and ii) the wind entrainment coefficient β is held constant between 0.1 and 0.4. We explore implications of these results for predicting the climate impacts of explosive eruptions and the likelihood that eruptions will form stable umbrella clouds or devastating pyroclastic flows. Last, we discuss the sensitivity of our results to the definition of plume height in the model in light of a recent set of laboratory experiments and draw conclusions for improving future databases of eruption parameters.