Using interpretive structural modeling and fuzzy analytic network process to identify and allocate risks in Arctic shipping strategic alliance

This paper aims to present a novel and useful analytical technique to identify risk factors and calculate risk share proportions in the prospective Arctic shipping strategic alliance, an alliance formed by shipping companies, using the combination of interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and fuzzy analytic network process (F-ANP). Based on in-depth review of relevant literature and interviews with experts, thirty-three risk factors are identified and categorized into five clusters: environment, service and infrastructure, policy, economy, and relation. The ISM technique is applied to identify inherent interactions among risk factors and construct a structural graph. Based on the results of ISM, F-ANP is then used to quantify risk allocation proportion. The results reveal that establishing an alliance can effectively balance the risk sharing proportion among shipping enterprises and the alliance should focus on monitoring the environment, service and communication risks. The proposed modeling approach can be extremely valuable for Arctic shipping alliances to focus on the most prominent risks and effectively allocate risks among partners.