Investigations of cattle herd breakdowns with bovine tuberculosis in four counties of England and Wales using VETNET data

Cattle herd breakdown (HBR) with bovine tuberculosis (BTB) was investigated for farms in four counties of England and Wales outside southwest England from 1986 to early 2000. Data from the national database of TB testing history (VETNET) were used. Factors that influenced HBR included calendar time, herd size, number of cattle tested, the test type, the inter-test interval and spatial grouping of farms. Herd tests other than routine herd tests had an increased risk of HBR in all four counties. In all counties, the risk of HBR increased with calendar time and in Shropshire a test interval of 3 years was associated with an increased risk of HBR compared with a 1-year test interval. In Staffordshire and Sussex, a 4-year test interval was associated with a lower risk of HBR compared with a 1-year test interval. There was no evidence of spatial clustering of HBR in West Glamorgan (equal spatial risk in a 15-30 km radius) and weak evidence of spatial clustering in Shropshire (7-15 km) and Sussex (5-10 km). In Staffordshire, there was evidence of spatial (2-4 km) and time (3-4 years) clustering of HBR. The locally increased rate of testing following a confirmed HBR increased the detection of infected herds but did not prevent local spread in two of the four counties (Shropshire and Staffordshire) since the rate of HBR increased linearly from 1988 to 2000. The main conclusion is that there were both local and distant components of spread.