National REDD + reference levels deduced from the global deforestation curve

• REDD+ reference levels are deduced from the forest transition hypothesis.
• Standardised consideration of national circumstances in reference levels proposed.
• National development stages are related to the global deforestation curve.

This article proposes an approach to one of the most prominent problems for the establishment of a REDD + regime — namely reference level determination. We have developed a standardised approach for the consideration of national circumstances in REDD + reference levels, which applies the global curve of forest cover development as the benchmark for accounting of avoided deforestation. The approach draws on the identification and empirical quantification of a global deforestation curve which was created by applying the forest transition concept (Köthke et al., 2013). By the underlying regression model the most relevant national circumstances were identified as the average of 140 countries. These national circumstances represent the development stages of the individual countries, from which their future forest cover development in the global average can be determined.By applying national data for estimating the corresponding average development the article identifies national reference levels for 86 REDD + target countries which are still in their deforestation phase. It is estimated by how much actual deforestation in each country deviates from the mean deforestation curve; the period considered is 2005–2010. This is the first time a uniform global deforestation pattern was used to determine the consideration of national circumstances in REDD + reference levels. The quantitative results provided here may be an important basis for further policy discussions about reference level determination.