Recent growth in China's roundwood import and its global implications

• China is the largest timber importer, with annual spending over $10 billion.
• Timber imports are analyzed within a Rotterdam import demand system.
• Expenditure and own-price elasticities are inelastic for coniferous timber.
• Substitute or complementary relations exist across types and sources.

In recent years, China's booming economy has resulted in a rapid growth of its roundwood consumption. China has become the largest roundwood importer worldwide, with annual spending on imports over $10 billion and the share in total world exports up to 38%. In this study, a Rotterdam demand system is employed to assess China's roundwood import demand by supplying source and product type between 1995 and 2012. Major findings are that the average expenditure share of China between 1995 and 2012 is 36% for coniferous roundwood, 17% for tropical roundwood, and 38% for other nonconiferous roundwood. China's imports have become diversified with more roundwood suppliers, including Russia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Gabon, and the United States. The estimates of expenditure and own-price elasticities for coniferous roundwood are small for most supplying sources. There is little competition within the coniferous roundwood group, but substitute or complementary relations exist across the four product groups by source. These findings are helpful for policymakers, industrial firms, and environmental groups to evaluate the impact of China's strong roundwood demand on economic development and environmental protection on a global scale.