Association of extent and infection of pancreatic necrosis with organ failure and death in acute necrotizing pancreatitis

Background & Aims: Organ failure is the usual cause of death in acute necrotizing pancreatitis. Our objective was to study whether the extent and infection of pancreatic necrosis correlate with organ failure and mortality. Methods: All consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis were prospectively studied. They underwent a detailed clinical and investigative evaluation. Pancreatic necrosis, diagnosed on a computed tomography scan, was graded as <30%, 30%-50%, and >50% necrosis and characterized as either sterile or infected. Logistic regression analysis was done to find out the association of the extent and infection of pancreatic necrosis with organ failure and mortality. Results: Of 276 patients (mean age, 41.25 years; 172 men), 104 had pancreatic necrosis: 30 had <30% necrosis, 37 had 30%-50% necrosis, and 37 had >50% necrosis; 74 had sterile necrosis, and 30 had infected necrosis. Of them, 37 (35%) patients developed organ failure. Two significant factors were associated with the development of organ failure, the extent of necrosis (<30% necrosis vs 30%-50% necrosis: P = .03; odds ratio [OR], 5.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15-29.45; <30% necrosis vs >50% necrosis: P = .0004; OR, 18.86; 95% CI, 3.75-94.92) and infected pancreatic necrosis (P = .02; OR, 3.29; 95% CI, 1.17-9.24). The overall mortality was 22%. Infected pancreatic necrosis (P = .006; OR, 4.99; 95% CI, 1.56-16.02) and Acute Physiology, Age, and Chronic Healthy Evaluation II score (P = .004; OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.08-1.52) were 2 independent predictors of mortality. Conclusions: Extent of necrosis and infected pancreatic necrosis were associated with the development of organ failure in patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis. Infected pancreatic necrosis was the most significant predictor of mortality.