Genetic and demographic consequences of importing animals into a small population: a simulation model of the Texas State Bison Herd (USA)

The extant 40 bison (Bison bison) constituting the Texas State Bison Herd (TSBH; USA) are directly and exclusively descended from a bison herd assembled by Charles Goodnight in the 1880s, representing a historically and genetically valuable resource. The population currently suffers from low genetic variation, low heterozygosity, high calf mortality, and low natality rates compared with other closed bison populations. Population viability analysis using the VORTEX program previously indicated a 99% chance of population extinction within the next 41 years [J. Mamm. 85 (2004) in press]. We developed a stochastic simulation model to evaluate the genetic and demographic consequences of various management scenarios for the TSBH using genotypic data from 51 microsatellite loci and demographic information recorded over a 6-year period. Our results reveal that without the introduction of new genetic variation, approximately 37% of the representative microsatellite loci will become fixed as the TSBH continues to lose genetic variation at a staggering rate of 30-40% within the next 50 years. Furthermore, if the current trends in natality and mortality rates continue, our model indicates the TSBH faces a 99% chance of extinction in the next 51 years. With the importation of unrelated male bison into the TSBH, and under the assumption of increased fitness, the probability of population survival in the next 100 years increases to 100%, and the population will reach the approximate carrying capacity of 200 bison in 15-16 years. Furthermore, our model predicts increases in genetic diversity and heterozygosity of 24.7-48.4% and 17.5-36.5%, respectively, in the next 100 years following the addition of new genetic variation. We conclude that the importation of bison into the TSBH is necessary to prevent extinction and ensure long-term population survival.