Does democracy preempt civil wars?

This paper proposes that the appropriate measure for capturing the political aspects that matter for social conflict is the level of inclusiveness of the political system. I analyze, theoretically and empirically, the relationship between inclusiveness of the political system and its stability. According to the model, high inclusive systems, such as the proportional representation system, are more stable than low inclusive systems that favor political exclusion, such as the majoritarian system. Empirically, it seems that democracy is not enough to deter social conflicts. The level of inclusiveness of the political system is important in explaining the probability of civil wars.