Evaluation of polymer electrolyte fuel cell application technology R&Ds by GERT analysis

Research and developments (R&Ds) of polymer electrolyte fuel cell application technologies, including two types of residential cogeneration systems (CGSs) operating at different temperatures and three types of passenger fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) fueled by onboard clean gasoline or hydrogen, were evaluated through an R&D processes model constructed using graphical evaluation and review technique. The results include that (1) the intermediate temperature (i.e.120-140 ∘C)-operating CGS and onboard hydrogen storage-type FCV have high R&D success probabilities of higher than 0.7; with realizations expected around the year 2021 under ordinary conditions, but as soon as 2017 given adequate R&D investment; (2) additional investments in system integration technologies are estimated to be the most cost-effective in shortening the R&D time of each application technology; and (3) concentrating the R&D of separator technologies in substitutional relationships to each other on metallic material-based technologies is one strategy for efficiency in elemental technology R&D investment.