Autoregressive cascades on random networks

• An auto-regressive cascade model is considered to study outages in complex networks.
• In a major departure from prior work, phase transition is established theoretically.
• The derived bounds are shown to be close to each other via numerical results.

A network cascade model that captures many real-life correlated node failures in large networks via load redistribution is studied. The considered model is well suited for networks where physical quantities are transmitted, e.g., studying large scale outages in electrical power grids, gridlocks in road networks, and connectivity breakdown in communication networks, etc. For this model, a phase transition is established, i.e., existence of critical thresholds above or below which a small number of node failures lead to a global cascade of network failures or not. Theoretical bounds are obtained for the phase transition on the critical capacity parameter that determines the threshold above and below which cascade appears or disappears, respectively, that are shown to closely follow numerical simulation results.