The asymmetric house price dynamics: Evidence from the California market

• This article studies asymmetric patterns in the serial correlation and mean reversion in house prices in California from 1979:Q1 to 2011:Q4.
• We document lower serial correlation (downward price rigidity) and greater mean reversion of house prices in periods of falling house prices.
• The asymmetric sensitivities of the serial correlation of house prices to income changes and population growth help explain the downward price rigidity.
• We document differences in the asymmetric patterns of house prices between the coastal and inland/valley regions and evidence on reduced serial correlation after the financial crisis.

This article studies asymmetric patterns in the serial correlation and mean reversion in house prices between periods of falling and rising prices in 26 metro areas in the state of California from 1979:Q1 to 2011:Q4. We document lower serial correlation (downward price rigidity) and greater mean reversion of house prices in periods of falling house prices. The asymmetric sensitivities of the serial correlation of house prices to income changes and population growth help explain the downward price rigidity. We document significant differences in the asymmetric patterns of house prices between the coastal and inland/valley regions of California and pervasive evidence on reduced serial correlation of house prices after the financial crisis.