Prospective analysis of technological innovation systems: Identifying technological and organizational development options for biogas in Switzerland

In this article, we put forward a concept for the identification and analysis of future development options of technological innovation systems. The key element of our approach, the so-called variation analysis, is a methodology to identify coherent socio-technical and organizational variants within a specific innovation field. Consistent combinations of these two dimensions may be interpreted as nuclei for alternative future developments of innovation systems. The method may be used in discursive foresight processes to inform strategy formulation of firms or policy makers who see a utility in furthering the innovation field. The paper has a focus on developing the theoretical background and the analytical structure of the methodology. Empirically, we illustrate the method for the innovation system of biomass digestion in Switzerland.