کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
998480 1481471 2007 15 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Income growth in the 21st century: Forecasts with an overlapping generations model
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Income growth in the 21st century: Forecasts with an overlapping generations model
چکیده انگلیسی

We forecast income growth over the period 2000–2050 in the US, Canada, and France. To ground the forecasts on relationships that are as robust as possible to changes in the environment, we use a quantitative theoretical approach which involves calibrating and simulating a general equilibrium model. Compared to existing studies, we allow for life uncertainty and migrations, use generational accounting studies to link taxes and public expenditures to demographic changes, and take into account the interaction between education and work experience. Forecasts show that growth will be weaker over the period 2010–2040. The gap between the US and the two other countries is increasing over time. France will catch-up and overtake Canada in 2020. Investigating alternative policy scenarios, we show that increasing the effective retirement age to 63 would be most profitable for France, reducing the gap between it and the US by one third. A decrease in social security benefits would slightly stimulate growth but would have no real impact on the gap between the countries.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 23, Issue 4, October–December 2007, Pages 621–635
نویسندگان
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