کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
10110085 | 1617361 | 2018 | 17 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Combining literature-based and data-driven fuzzy models to predict brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change
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کلمات کلیدی
true skill statisticTSSWeighted usable areaSVRTSKWSENSEWUANash-Sutcliffe EfficiencyRCPGAMHDCCross-validation - اعتبار سنجی متقابلDifferential evolution - الگوریتم تکاملی تفاضلیSensitivity - حساسیتSupport vector regression - رگرسیون بردار پشتیبانیMars - سیاره مریخGeneralised additive model - مدل افزایشی عمومیRepresentative concentration pathway - مسیر تمرکز نمایندهflow rate - نرخ جریانSpecificity - ویژگی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک
بوم شناسی، تکامل، رفتار و سامانه شناسی
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چکیده انگلیسی
A fuzzy rule-based system combining empirical data on hydraulic preferences and literature information on temperature requirements was used to foresee the brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change. The climatic scenarios for the Cabriel River (Eastern Iberian Peninsula) corresponded to two Representative Concentration Pathways (4.5 and 8.5) for the short (2011-2040) and mid (2041-2070) term horizons. The hydraulic and hydrologic modelling were undertaken with process-based numerical models (i.e., River2D© and HBV-light) while the water temperature was modelled by assembling the predictions of three machine learning techniques (M5, Multi-Adaptive Regression Splines and Support Vector Regression). The predicted rise in the water temperature will not be compensated by the more benign lower flows. Consequently, the suitable spawning habitat will be reduced between 15.4-48.7%. The entire population shall suffer the effects of climate change and will probably be extirpated from the downstream segments of the river.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Ecological Modelling - Volume 386, 24 October 2018, Pages 98-114
Journal: Ecological Modelling - Volume 386, 24 October 2018, Pages 98-114
نویسندگان
Rafael Muñoz-Mas, Patricia Marcos-Garcia, Antonio Lopez-Nicolas, Francisco J. MartÃnez-GarcÃa, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Francisco MartÃnez-Capel,