A method for estimating child poverty rates, projections for the short-term and the relationship between child poverty and child care subsidy receipt at the county level

► Developed a method to estimate county level annual child poverty rates. ► Utilized random effects and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average models. ► Exploited census, American Community Survey and administrative data. ► Demonstrate method on children aged less than 12 years in poverty New York State. ► Association between childcare subsidy receipt and child poverty varies by location.