Little by little, inch by inch: Project expansion assessments in the Papua New Guinea mining industry

Social impact assessment (SIA) has traditionally been practiced as an ex-ante predictive tool in the context of regulatory approval by government agencies. This model of SIA developed by Burdge and others is based on 'greenfields' development, of a new project going in to areas where there are no, or relatively few, similar types of development. The International Principles of SIA signalled a conceptual shift in the practice of SIA where greater emphasis is placed on the assessment and management of social issues across the life-cycle of developments. In addition forms of cumulative impact assessment have been developed for contexts where more than one project is likely to impact on populations or communities. With these changes to the traditional models of impact assessment there is a need to clarify how and when dedicated phases of 'assessment' might be undertaken over the life-cycle of a development. In the context of the mining industry, SIAs are increasingly required by governments for incremental increases in the size or impact of these operations. This paper reviews the development and application of Project Expansion Assessments (PEAs) for two large-scale mining operations in Papua New Guinea. It argues that a different set of assumptions need to underlie the model of IA for such assessments, with more emphasis on trajectories rather than baselines, a critical evaluation and attribution of effects, and the incorporation of adaptive management tools into the process.