Improving the utility of existing conservation plans using projected housing development

• We assess vulnerability of and threat to expert-based conservation priorities.
• One third of priority areas are threatened by current housing development.
• Multi-purpose priority areas are more threatened than conservation-only areas.
• Threat and vulnerability metrics can be used to schedule conservation actions.
• This method can add value to existing conservation plans across the US.

Land management agencies frequently develop plans to identify future conservation needs and priorities. Creation and implementation of these plans is often required to maintain funding eligibility. Agency conservation plans are typically expert-based and identify large numbers of priority areas based primarily on biological data. As conservation dollars are limited, the challenge is to implement these plans in a manner that is effective, efficient, and considers future threats. Our goal was to improve the utility of existing, expert- and biologically-based plans using a flexible approach for incorporating spatial data on vulnerability to and threat from housing development. We examined two conservation plans for the state of Wisconsin in the United States and related them to current and projected future housing development, a key cause of habitat loss and degradation. Most (54–73%) priority areas were highly vulnerable to future threat, and 18% were already highly threatened by housing development. Existing conservation investments were highly threatened in 8–9% of priority areas, and 25–34% of priority areas were highly vulnerable and highly threatened, meriting immediate conservation attention. Conversely, low threat levels in 20–26% of priority areas may allow time for new, large-scale conservation initiatives to succeed. Our results highlight that vulnerability to and threat from existing and future housing development vary greatly among expert- and biologically-based priority areas. The framework presented here can thus improve the utility of existing plans by helping to target, schedule, and tailor actions to minimize biodiversity loss in highly threatened areas, maximize biodiversity gains, and protect existing conservation investments.