Multi-level modeling of urban expansion and cultivated land conversion for urban hotspot counties in China

China has undergone large-scale urban expansion and rapid loss of cultivated land for more than two decades. The goal of this paper is to examine the relative importance of socioeconomic and policy factors across different administrative levels on urban expansion and associated cultivated land conversion. We conduct the analysis for urban hotspot counties across the entire country. We use multi-level modeling techniques to examine how socioeconomic and policy factors at different administrative levels affect cultivated land conversion across three time periods, 1989–1995, 1995–2000, and 2000–2005. Our results show that at the county level, both urban land rent and urban wages contribute to total cultivated land conversion. Contrary to expectations, agricultural investment drives farmland conversion, suggesting a policy failure with unintended consequences. At the provincial level, urban wages and foreign direct investment both positively contribute to cultivated land conversion. We also find that higher GDP correlates with more urban expansion but the relationship is nonlinear.

► We examine the urban conversion of cultivated land in China at the national scale.
► Our model takes account of the decentralized nature of China's urbanization.
► Overall local factors play a dominant role in determining urban expansion.
► Agricultural investment drives farmland conversion, suggesting a policy failure.
► We identify a boosting mechanism between urban land rent and urban development.