Urban growth of Kampala, Uganda: Pattern analysis and scenario development

Kampala, the capital of Uganda, is one of the fastest growing African cities with annual growth rates of 5.6%. The rapid urban growth causes major socio-economic and environmental problems that lower the quality of life of the urban dwellers. A better insight in the controlling factors of the urban growth pattern is necessary to develop and implement a sustainable urban planning. The recent urban growth of Kampala was mapped using LANDSAT images of 1989, 1995, 2003 and 2010. A spatially-explicit logistic regression model was developed for Kampala. Significant predictors in this model included: the presence of roads, the accessibility of the city centre and the distance to existing built-up area. These variables are used as steering handles to create future urban scenarios. Three alternative scenarios for future urban growth were developed: a business as usual, restrictive and stimulative scenario. Our model of growth was applied to these three scenarios to predict patterns of urban growth to 2030. The scenarios show that the alternative policy options result in contrasting future urban sprawl patterns with a significant impact on the local quality of life.

► The use value of freely available satellite imagery in African urban studies is shown.
► The business as usual growth scenario warns for extensive future urban sprawl.
► The model, as decision support tool, can guide sustainable urban planning.