The potential impacts of sprawl on farmland in Northeast China—Evaluating a new strategy for rural development

China's “building a new countryside” strategy for coordinating urban and rural development and gearing up national economic growth brings challenges to the country's farmland protection. The objective of this study is to evaluate potential impacts of implementing the strategy on farmland and to provide scientific guidelines and decision support for decision makers in northeast China. We analyzed three “building a new countryside” implementation scenarios (Historical Trend, Intensive Development, and Extensive Development) using the SLEUTH urban growth and land cover change model in combination with remote sensing and GIS analysis. The results indicated that farmland loss was inevitable, but revealed large differences in landscape patterns and the amount of farmland loss among the three BNC implementation scenarios. The Extensive Development scenario showed the largest increase in urban and rural residential land, the highest level of landscape fragmentation, and the largest loss of farmland. Farmland loss under the Intensive Development scenario is higher than that under the Historical Trend scenario; however, urban and rural sprawl and the fragmentation of landscape under the Intensive Development scenario were lower than those under the Historical Trend scenario. Consequently, the Intensive Development scenario was recommended for actual “building a new countryside” implementation in the study area. Potential rural sprawl under the Intensive Development scenario was also discussed, which provided useful information for guiding scientific-based decision support and policy making. While most studies of sprawl prediction involve urban centers only, our study presents a case of predicting urban and rural sprawl simultaneously.

► We simulate the potential impacts of sprawl on farmland under different implementation scenarios of “Building a new countryside” strategy in northeastern China.
► Farmland loss is inevitable in implementing BNC strategy. Building a new countryside in an intensive, compact and demonstrated way is recommended.
► Rural land management legislation and regulations, strict land law enforcement, and scientific rural planning are imperative for farmland protection in implementing the strategy.
► The study presents a case of predicting urban and rural sprawl simultaneously.