Modelling the future coastal zone urban development as implied by the IPCC SRES and assessing the impact from sea level rise

During the last decennium climate change has received much attention and especially various mitigation and adaptation strategies have gained political awareness. Particularly the coastal zone will be affected by derived consequences like sea level rise, increased storminess and flooding. In order to mitigate the most severe consequences for the society it is decisive that urban and regional planners address the climate change issue in their planning efforts. Using modelling and simulation, we can increase our understanding of the future land-use system under influence of a changing climate and accordingly reduce uncertainty concerning decisions. The current paper describes how to carry out land-use simulations as envisaged by the SRES narratives using a multi-criteria land-use modelling framework. Combined with expected future flooding due to sea level rise we perform an impact assessment on future urban development. Finally, we describe how the definition of adaptation strategies can facilitate spatial planning measures to counteract the consequences of potential climate changes.

Research highlights▶ Quantifying and downscaling SRES narratives from global to regional level. ▶ Urban land-use scenarios were developed using an operational land-use model. ▶ An impact assessment of sea level rise on urban development was carried out. ▶ Urban planners can assess the effect of various adaptation measures using the land-use model.