Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

► The SLEUTH model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to develop future scenarios. ► Three scenarios simulate changing spatial patterns to help guide planning for the future. ► Limit growth beyond cross-border commerce areas, protects forests and wildlife habitat. ► Trade-offs between urban area, the economy, and environmental impacts can be realized.